A client tried to stiff me for $5000. I got my money, but should I do something?
This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew.A few months ago I finished a small consulting contract — it would have been less than three weeks, if I worked on it full time — and I find it has given me some...
View ArticleChatGPT4 writes Stan code so I don’t have to.
Several months ago I (Phil Price) wrote a Stan model to do some time series forecasting. It took me almost a full day to get it running and debugged. Today I decided to test ChatGPT4, by seeing if it...
View ArticleThe cleantech job market: Every modeler is supposed to be a great Python...
This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew.I’ve had a run of luck ever since I left my staff scientist position at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory to become a freelance consultant doing statistical modeling...
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Time Series Forecasting: futile but necessary. An example using electricity...
This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew.I have a client company that owns refrigerated warehouses around the world. A refrigerated warehouse is a Costco-sized building that is kept very cold; 0 F is a...
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View ArticlePraising with Faint Damnation
This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew.A friend and I were discussing a route for a bike ride. I was pretty tired and unmotivated so I said sure but let’s do a really easy ride. I suggested taking Bay...
View ArticleIs Martha (Smith) still with us?
This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew. It occurred to me a few weeks ago that I haven’t seen a comment by Martha (Smith) in quite a while…several months, possibly many months? She’s a long-time...
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The Course of the Pandemic: What’s the story with Excess Deaths?
This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew. A commenter who goes by “Anoneuoid” has pointed out that ‘excess deaths’ in the U.S. have been about as high in the past year as they were in the year before...
View ArticleHigh-intensity exercise, some new news
This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew. Several months I noticed something interesting (to me!) about my heart rate, and I thought about blogging about it…but I didn’t feel like it would be...
View ArticleAn Easy Layup for Stan
This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew. The tldr version of this is: I had a statistical problem that ended up calling for a Bayesian hierarchical model. I decided to implement it in Stan. Even though...
View ArticleIs “choosing your favorite” an optimization problem?
This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew. A week or so ago, a post involving an economic topic had a comment thread about what is involved in choosing a “favorite” (or a “preferred choice” or “the...
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Objectively worse, but practically better: an example from the World Chess...
A position from Game 2 of the 2021 World Chess Championship match. White has just played e4. This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew. The World Chess Championship is going on right now. There have been...
View ArticleWhy are goods stacking up at U.S. ports?
This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew. I keep seeing articles that say U.S. ports are all backed up, hundreds of ships can’t even offload because there’s no place to put their cargo, etc. And then the...
View ArticleThe COVID wager: results are in
This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew. Frequent readers of this blog will already know about the wager between me and a commenter called Anoneuoid. Would the number of new COVID cases in the U.S. in...
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Wanna bet? A COVID-19 example.
This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew. Andrew wrote a post back on September 2 that plugged a piece by Jon Zelner, Nina Masters, Ramya Naraharisetti, Sanyu Mojola, and Merlin Chowkwanyun about...
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Tokyo Track revisited: no, I don’t think the track surface is “1-2% faster”
This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew. A few weeks ago I posted about the claim — by the company that made the running track for the Tokyo Olympics — that the bounciness of the track makes it “1-2%...
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How much faster is the Tokyo track?
Speed (meters per second) in Olympic and World Championship finals in track sprinting. This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew. The guy whose company made the track for the Tokyo Olympic stadium says...
View ArticleWhat is a “woman”?
This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew. As we approach the Olympic Games, this seems like a good time to think about the rules for deciding whether a person is a “woman” when it comes to athletic...
View ArticleIf a value is “less than 10%”, you can bet it’s not 0.1%. Usually.
This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew. Many years ago I saw an ad for a running shoe (maybe it was Reebok?) that said something like “At the New York Marathon, three of the five fastest runners were...
View ArticleThe Pandemic: how bad is it really?
This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew. Andrew’s recent post about questionable death rate statistics about the pandemic has reminded me that I have not yet posted about a paper Troy Quast sent me....
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